> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://docs.bullpen.fi/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://docs.bullpen.fi/prediction-markets/overview.md).

# Overview

Trade prediction markets on Bullpen with execution through Polymarket's hybrid-decentralized orderbook.

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcome of real-world events. Instead of speculating on asset prices, you buy shares representing your belief in whether something will or will not happen.

## How It Works

Every prediction market has two outcomes: **Yes** and **No**. Each outcome is represented by a token that trades between $0.00 and $1.00.

* A **Yes** share at $0.65 means the market believes there's a 65% chance the event happens
* A **No** share at $0.35 means the market believes there's a 35% chance it does not happen
* Yes + No prices always sum to $1.00

When the market resolves:

* Winning shares pay out $1.00 each
* Losing shares become worthless

Your profit is the difference between what you paid and the $1.00 payout.

## Example Trade

The market "Will BTC exceed $150k by March 2025?" shows:

* Yes: $0.42
* No: $0.58

You believe BTC will break $150k. You buy 100 Yes shares at $0.42, spending $42.

**If BTC exceeds $150k:** You redeem 100 shares at $1.00 each = $100. Profit: $58.

**If BTC does not exceed $150k:** Your shares are worth $0. Loss: $42.

## Market Types

Bullpen supports prediction markets across several categories:

| Category | Examples                                        |
| -------- | ----------------------------------------------- |
| Crypto   | Price movements, ETF approvals, protocol events |
| Politics | Elections, policy decisions, appointments       |
| Sports   | Game outcomes, championship winners             |
| Finance  | Earnings beats, Fed decisions, economic data    |
| Culture  | Awards, media events, celebrity outcomes        |

## Smart Money Tools

Bullpen surfaces smart money activity across all prediction markets. From the Predictions tab you can:

* View convergence signals when multiple smart wallets take the same side
* Track whale trades and biggest recent wins
* Filter live trade feeds by trader P\&L, volume, and trade size
* Copy trade profitable wallets with automated execution

Related pages:

* [Smart Money Overview](/smart-money/overview.md)
* [Copy Trading](/smart-money/copy-trading.md)

## Execution

All prediction market orders execute through Polymarket's Central Limit Order Book (CLOB). See [Polymarket Integration](/prediction-markets/polymarket-integration.md) for details on how orders are matched and settled.

## Key Differences from Perps

| Aspect      | Prediction Markets     | Perpetuals                    |
| ----------- | ---------------------- | ----------------------------- |
| Underlying  | Event outcome (binary) | Asset price (continuous)      |
| Price range | $0.00 to $1.00         | Unlimited                     |
| Leverage    | None (1x only)         | Up to 50x                     |
| Settlement  | At market resolution   | Continuous (funding payments) |
| Expiry      | When event resolves    | Never                         |
| Collateral  | USDC.e on Polygon      | USDC on Hyperliquid           |

## Risk Considerations

* **Binary outcome**: You either win the full payout or lose your entire position
* **Resolution risk**: Markets can take time to resolve, locking your capital
* **Liquidity risk**: Some markets have thin orderbooks, leading to slippage
* **Oracle risk**: Resolution depends on accurate reporting of real-world events

## Getting Started

1. Fund your wallet with USDC.e on Polygon. See [Funding Your Wallet](/getting-started/funding-your-wallet.md).
2. Browse available markets
3. Place a limit or market order on your chosen outcome
4. Monitor your position until resolution
5. Redeem winning shares for $1.00 each


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