Overview
Trade prediction markets on Bullpen with execution through Polymarket's hybrid-decentralized orderbook.
Prediction markets let you trade on the outcome of real-world events. Instead of speculating on asset prices, you buy shares representing your belief in whether something will or will not happen.
How It Works
Every prediction market has two outcomes: Yes and No. Each outcome is represented by a token that trades between $0.00 and $1.00.
A Yes share at $0.65 means the market believes there's a 65% chance the event happens
A No share at $0.35 means the market believes there's a 35% chance it does not happen
Yes + No prices always sum to $1.00
When the market resolves:
Winning shares pay out $1.00 each
Losing shares become worthless
Your profit is the difference between what you paid and the $1.00 payout.
Example Trade
The market "Will BTC exceed $150k by March 2025?" shows:
Yes: $0.42
No: $0.58
You believe BTC will break $150k. You buy 100 Yes shares at $0.42, spending $42.
If BTC exceeds $150k: You redeem 100 shares at $1.00 each = $100. Profit: $58.
If BTC does not exceed $150k: Your shares are worth $0. Loss: $42.
Market Types
Bullpen supports prediction markets across several categories:
Crypto
Price movements, ETF approvals, protocol events
Politics
Elections, policy decisions, appointments
Sports
Game outcomes, championship winners
Finance
Earnings beats, Fed decisions, economic data
Culture
Awards, media events, celebrity outcomes
Smart Money Tools
Bullpen surfaces smart money activity across all prediction markets. From the Predictions tab you can:
View convergence signals when multiple smart wallets take the same side
Track whale trades and biggest recent wins
Filter live trade feeds by trader P&L, volume, and trade size
Copy trade profitable wallets with automated execution
Related pages:
Execution
All prediction market orders execute through Polymarket's Central Limit Order Book (CLOB). See Polymarket Integration for details on how orders are matched and settled.
Key Differences from Perps
Underlying
Event outcome (binary)
Asset price (continuous)
Price range
$0.00 to $1.00
Unlimited
Leverage
None (1x only)
Up to 50x
Settlement
At market resolution
Continuous (funding payments)
Expiry
When event resolves
Never
Collateral
USDC.e on Polygon
USDC on Hyperliquid
Risk Considerations
Binary outcome: You either win the full payout or lose your entire position
Resolution risk: Markets can take time to resolve, locking your capital
Liquidity risk: Some markets have thin orderbooks, leading to slippage
Oracle risk: Resolution depends on accurate reporting of real-world events
Getting Started
Fund your wallet with USDC.e on Polygon. See Funding Your Wallet.
Browse available markets
Place a limit or market order on your chosen outcome
Monitor your position until resolution
Redeem winning shares for $1.00 each
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